Another Study Showing BEVs in Decline

You cannot turn around without reading a study beating up on the electric car nowadays.

Wayne Gerdes - CleanMPG - April 23, 2015

Nissan LEAF production will surely slow.

From the SAE World Congress in Detroit this week, Continental added their own research to the short term demise of the electric car.

According to the Mobility study commissioned by Continental, Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) barely evoke any emotion to purchase or drive. Within the company commissioned study, a majority of respondents see BEVs as environmentally friendly (71%), but image factors play a key role in the purchase decision and BEVs rank low on the list of desire.

Given this was a German study, the term “driving pleasure” was used as a metric and only 31 percent of the respondents related BEVs with that aspect of the driving experience. Maybe Tesla? Other metrics included attractive design(s) (38%) and sportiness (27%). The higher purchase price compared to conventional vehicles was a major hurdle and all together these impressions and realities dampens drivers' enthusiasm to go the BEV route.

Continental tasked the market and social research institute infas to conduct the survey of drivers in the U.S. and Germany, and added a qualitative survey in France, Japan, and China. The Mobility Study was also supported by interviews with experts in the automotive industry and supplemental research.

Compared to the 2011 Continental Mobility Study, significantly fewer drivers in all age groups expect to use a fully electric car in the medium term (four to 10 years). The expectation figures fell from 33% to 24% among those 16 to 30 years old, and from 31% to 21% among those 31 to 59 years old. The reluctant attitude amongst drivers 60 and over – of all the groups, a population segment featuring an affinity for cars as well as high-purchasing power – decreased from 46% to 21%.

At the same time, there was a strong increase over the past three years in the number of drivers in all age groups who would switch to an electric car only if vehicles with internal combustion engines were no longer available (16 to 30 years old: from 2% to 12%; 31 to 59 years old: from 1% to 14%). The increase has been particularly strong in the group of 60 years and older (from 2% to 26%).

Regarding hybridization, the company added that it allows a reasonable cost/benefit ratio and gives drivers their first experience with electromobility.

Kregg Wiggins, Senior VP, Powertrain Division, North America:

Quote:

"It is inevitable that we will need electrified propulsion systems if we are to meet the fleet emission targets in the near and long term. Approximately 20 percent of new vehicles worldwide will have electrified drive systems by 2025."

Wiggins highlighted that the findings of the Mobility Study confirms that there will be further improvements in combustion engine efficiency, while simultaneously moving forward with the strategy for the gradual electrification of the powertrain.

The study was initiated a while before the collapse of oil and fuel prices in the second half of 201. The survey used 2,300 non-drivers in the U.S. and 1,800 in Germany, and a qualitative survey of 400 vehicle owners each in Germany, the United States, France, Japan and China. Interviews with experts from the automotive industry and research supplement the results of the study with insights from a professional point of view.

U.S. Sales of Most Popular Electrified Vehicles 2013 - 2015

Manufacturer	Model	Mar-15 YTD	Mar-14 YTD	Mar-13 YTD
Nissan	LEAF	4,085	5,184	3,539
Chevrolet	Volt	1,874	3,606	4,244
Toyota	Prius PHEV-11	1,271	3,296	2,353
Ford	Focus Electric	307	406	419
Honda	Accord PHEV-13	45	69	NA

Joshua and Mandi Pennginton’s Prius PHEV and a LEAF under a heavy snow. Sales are even colder than the picture portends.

Consumer demand for BEV/PHEVs is faltering. Just last week Joshua traded in his Prius PHEV-11 – on the left – for a new Subaru WRX.

In total, CARB still demands a certain percentage of electrified vehicles be produce in order to sell the rest of an automakers lineup in the California market. With slack demand, that can only mean one thing. Low enough prices to entice some to move to the most sustainable method of transport we have available today. $13,000 Ford Focus Electrics were already available just before Christmas. Expect to see more of these fire sales in the near future. For Californian’s anyway?

Another Study Showing BEVs in Decline